TLDR: Director James Cameron reveals Avatar 4 is likely to move forward.

James Cameron has shared a new update about the future of the Avatar franchise, revealing that Avatar 4 has not yet been officially greenlit but remains highly likely to move forward.
The film is currently scheduled for a theatrical release on Dec 21 2029.
Current Status of Avatar 4
According to Cameron, the decision to fully proceed with Avatar 4 will depend largely on audience feedback and the box office performance of Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Some scenes have already been filmed during the production of Fire and Ash, suggesting the next chapter is already partially underway.
Performance of Avatar: Fire and Ash
Avatar: Fire and Ash performed strongly at the global box office, earning nearly USD1.5 billion worldwide. Although the film fell short of the studio’s ambitious USD2 billion target, it still ranked among the top three highest-grossing films of the year.
The Future of the Avatar Franchise
The long-term roadmap for the Avatar series continues to extend into the next decade. Avatar 5 is currently scheduled for release on December 19, 2031, and the cast for Avatar 4 has reportedly already been locked in.
Studio executives have even reacted enthusiastically to the script, with one reportedly responding with a strong “holy f**k” reaction after reading it.